BLOG SERIES - Dramatic increase in deaths at home- No.3

Using a similar graph used in our first blog in this series, we'll be tracking weekly deaths overtime, up until w/c 5th April 2021.

What the data analysis shows

As with last time, deaths where Covid-19 was involved are represented by the gap between the blue and red lines, and apart from the peaks of the pandemic in March 2020 and in January 2021, there were very few Covid-19 deaths at home.

The first group analysed is aged 15-44 yrs, due to very few 'deaths at home' involving younger children in the age 15yrs and younger group. 

In the 15-44yr age group, there was a 22% increase in home deaths between the start of 2020 and the w/c 5th April 2021, compared to the average number of deaths in the same period of time in 2015-2019.

In ages 45yrs and above, there was an initial peak of deaths at home starting in March 2020, followed by a gradual decline over time with quite a lot of weekly variation, but with a total number of deaths of 5,840 it remained well above historic levels.

Aged 65-74yrs showed a large increase in non-Covid-19 deaths from March 2020 to July, and again from October 2020 to the end of December. There was a 31.6% increase in home deaths between the start of 2020 and the w/c 5th April 2021, compared to the average number of deaths in the same period of time in 2015-2019.

In the 75-84yrs and 85yr+ groups, home deaths were dramatically high from March to May 2020, with 7,288 deaths in aged 75-84yrs and an increase of 49.7% in age 85yr +. Both show a steady decline of current deaths at home from June 2020, with later figures being similar to the historic mean.

The increase in home deaths compared to the historic average in 2015-2019 shows that all age groups above age 15 years increased, with the older age groups seeing a higher relative increase, going from approximately 30% in the 45-64 yr group up to nearly 50% in the 85 yr+ group.

What next?

The shift to deaths at home remains above historical rates. The decline that has occurred since the start of 2021 is likely to be:

- a mix of seasonal variation (historically the number of deaths falls after January), and

- the drop in Covid infections and associated pressure on hospital beds

What happens from here remains to be seen and will be closely linked to both policy and the ongoing pandemic. We will continue to monitor the data as they are updated.

Further Information

Please contact our Health & Social Care research group if you wish to discuss any of the content of this blog.

BLOG SERIES 1 - Dramatic increase in deaths at home during the pandemic 

BLOG SERIES 2 - Dramatic increase in deaths at home during the pandemic